Georgia’s role in the 2008 Presidential Election could be interesting. Georgia’s fifteen (15) electoral votes have long been assumed as safe for Republican Presidential presumptive nominee Senator John McCain. After all, Georgia has cast its Electoral votes for the Republican nominee in the last three consecutive Presidential elections and in five of the last seven Presidential elections (i.e., since President Jimmy Carter).
Yet, the only thing that has been predictable about this year’s Presidential election has been that it has been unpredictable. The Democratic Presidential presumptive nominee, Senator Barack Obama, easily won the Georgia Democratic Presidential Preference Primary with over sixty-six percent (66%) of the vote amounting to over seven hundred thousand (700,000) votes. In contrast, Senator McCain was not even Georgia Republicans’ first choice. Governor Mike Huckabee carried Georgia with just over one-third of the Republican Presidential Preference Primary vote. To give some context, Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain - combined - received seven hundred and thirty-thousand (730,000) votes.
Even in failure, Georgia Democrats may have some reason to hope. After all, the failure of the Democratic Party of Georgia to recruit candidates down the ballot may actually work to its advantage in the Presidential race. While Obama supporters will have every reason to vote for a historical candidate, rank and file Republicans will not have to show up to protect their local state representative or county commissioner. Indeed, Senator McCain will have to make the case to win as opposed to relying on local party affiliations to carry the day.
Make no mistake, however, it does help Senator McCain’s cause that popular Republican Governor Sonny Perdue, Senators Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss, and a powerful army of largely unopposed State Senators and State Representatives have lined up in lock step to support the Republican nominee. In addition, Senator Chambliss’ contested United States Senate race could be the race that entices Republican voters to the polls in November. Yet, nothing is automatic in this political environment.
Oddly, it could be the third-party candidacies that turn the outcome of the President election in Georgia upside down. Already, the Libertarian Party has nominated one well known Georgian as its nominee for President of the United States. On May 26, 2008, the Libertarians met in Denver, Colorado (the same city where Democrats will meet to officially select their nominee in August), and nominated former Seventh District Congressman Bob Bar. It took six ballots for the Libertarians to select Robert Laurence “Bob” Barr as their nominee. But Bob Barr was their selection and he is no stranger to the national political scene. He polls around seven percent (7%) nationally.
Meanwhile, on July 10-13, 2008, the Green Party will meet in Chicago, Illinois to select their Presidential and Vice-Presidential nominees. The current delegate leader (by a wide margin) for the Green Party nomination is none other than former Fourth District Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. From 1993 to 2003, and from 2005 until to 2007, the notable and quotable Congresswoman represented, among other areas, DeKalb County.
It would be an understatement to say that former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and former Congressman Bob Barr represented different ends of the political spectrum. Ms. McKinney made her name speaking for the far left from a predominantly black and urban Congressional district. Mr. Barr made his name speaking for the far right from a predominantly white and rural Congressional district.
(Interestingly, as diverse as their opinions, former Congressman Barr and former Congresswoman McKinney do not disagree on everything. Both agree that current Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be replaced - just for dramatically different reasons.)
So, what could their impact be on the potentially close Presidential election in Georgia? Unclear.
Certainly, Senator McCain’s campaign team has to be concerned about the possibility that Congressman Barr could become an easy ‘objection vote’ for conservatives who are unhappy with the McCain nomination.
And, Senator Obama’s campaign team has to wonder if Congresswoman McKinney’s core constituency might remain blindly loyal to her notwithstanding the fact that most of Congresswoman McKinney’s ardent followers support Senator Obama.
If the election is close, it would not take much to swing the election either way.
And, another question: how will the Presidential debates work? Just imagine the fun if former Congressman Barr and former Congresswoman McKinney join Senator Obama and Senator McCain on the stage. Now that would be entertaining.