When Democrats won former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s Congressional seat in Illinois, it was a sign that the Democratic surge and the Republican decline manifested in the 2006 Democratic takeover of the Congress was not yet over. Republicans in denial insisted that the Republican candidate in the Illinois race was a weak candidate who made some serious tactical mistakes. Defensively, they also argued that Hastert’s district was a marginal district, especially without a Republican incumbent. The bottom line was that Democrats picked up a coveted Republican seat held by the longest serving Republican Speaker in history.
When Democrats won Republican Congressman Richard Baker’s Congressional seat in Louisiana, it was a sign that the Democratic surge and the Republican decline was continuing. Republican strategists had tried a new technique of political advertisements connecting the Democratic Congressional candidate to Senator Barack Obama. Republicans in denial insisted that the new strategy was working, but the clock just ran out. Then followed the familiar pattern of excuses about the quality of the candidate and the strength of the campaign. The bottom line was that Democrats picked up a prized Republican seat which had been held by a Republican for over two decades.
When Democrats won Republican Roger Wicker’s Congressional seat in Mississippi, it confirmed that the Democratic surge and the Republican decline remains a current political reality. The Mississippi First Congressional District is a traditionally Republican, heavily conservative district which by all accounts Republicans should win easily. After all, President George W. Bush carried the congressional district with sixty-two percent (62%) of the vote in 2004. While admittedly there was a bitter contest among Republican candidates to succeed the now Senator Wicker, the margins in the district should have been enough for any Republican nominee to win. Yet, the Democratic candidate won.
In the Mississippi race, Republicans employed in full force their strategy of connecting the Democratic Congressional candidate to Senator Barack Obama. No excuses apply - there were plenty of resources, plenty of time, and lots of play. It did not work. Some polls even suggest that it had the opposite effect among the targeted voters. Numbers for the Democratic candidate actually increased in some sectors of the Republican electorate. Not surprisingly, support among Senator Obama’s supporters skyrocketed.
Regardless, the bottom line was that Democrats picked up a seat in a district that should by all political measures be a safe Republican seat. By all accounts, the loss signals a potential devastating meltdown for Congressional Republicans.
With almost thirty retirements in the House of Representatives, and a number of House Republican incumbents facing stiff challenges, these special election outcomes have even greater significance. In the Senate, the numbers are even more challenging with Republicans defending two thirds of the Senate seats at play. The fact is that from a numbers standpoint, and from a messaging perspective, Congressional Republicans have some serious problems and there are no easy or quick solutions.
Candidly, their biggest problem is that they have a credibility crisis. Like the little boy who cried wolf, most Americans neither listen to nor believe in Congressional Republicans - and for good reason. It is almost impossible to deliver a message, even a new message, if no one listens.
When seeking control of the Congress, Republicans insisted that they would be different and that they would control government spending, end corruption, fix broken bureaucracies, and respond to demands for change. They did not. Now, when they make those same pledges in 2008, no one believes them. More significantly, no one listens.
Republicans had hoped that a “we’re not them” message aimed at Senator Barack Obama might be different. The results in Louisiana and Mississippi proved this strategy does not work - even in a safe Republican district. For voters in 2008, it was just another variation of crying wolf. Further complicating the problem for the Republicans is the fact that they have the same folks doing the crying.
Unless Republicans find a way to break with the politics of their past, there will be lots more crying to come. If the current trends continue, Congressional Republicans are looking at election losses that will return them to Watergate levels from 1974.