Governor Mitt Romney formally endorsed Senator John McCain. The speculation regarding a McCain/Romney ticket started before the endorsement occurred. Most likely, that is as far as the idea will go.
Everyone agrees that Senator McCain needs (and hence wants) the backing of core conservatives, especially the voting social conservative kind. Between McCain/Feingold (also known as campaign finance reform) and McCain/Kennedy (also known as immigration reform), connecting with core conservatives has been a tough sell for the Republican Senator from Arizona.
Surprisingly given the stakes, conservatives had made no secret of their differences with Senator McCain. Radio talk show heavyweights (like Rush Limbaugh), notable columnists (like Ann Coulter), television personalities (like Sean Hannity), and evangelical leaders (like James Dobson) have not been shy about expressing their concerns over Senator McCain. As result, the pressure has only increased for him to reach out and touch an important segment of the Republican Party.
Importantly, Senator McCain has an important chip to play in courting conservatives. He has pledged to serve only one term. It means that his Vice Presidential selection has real meaning. His pick could be the bridge candidate between this generation and the next. Conservatives certainly have their antennae up regarding this significant possibility.
Many of these opinion leaders designated Governor Romney as the preferred conservative for Republicans in the nomination contests. In fact, conservative media personalities weighed in heavily in favor of Governor Romney. Yet, in contest after contest, conservative Republican primary voters and caucus goers proved repeatedly that they have their own opinions about the candidate they support for President and they largely backed Governor Mike Huckabee, especially in the south. But, the conservative media personalities made clear from early on that they found Governor Huckabee unacceptable.
For Senator McCain, it is quite a pickle. He needs conservatives. Conservative media personalities say “yes” to Governor Romney and “no” to Governor Huckabee. Republican caucus goers and voters say “yes” to Governor Huckabee and “no” to Governor Romney. The only thing for sure is that it probably guarantees that neither Governor Romney nor Governor Huckabee make the ticket.
Senator McCain needs three things from a Vice Presidential candidate. First, he needs them to deliver the conservative base of the Republican Party - both the opinion leaders and the opinion holders (voters). Neither Governor Romney nor Governor Huckabee can deliver both. Worse yet, each is a disqualifier for many leaders and followers in the Party.
Second, Senator McCain needs a running mate who can deliver the south without jeopardizing him in the rest of the country. Every minute and every penny that Senator McCain spends in the south campaigning is prohibitively costly. On the other hand, he cannot pick a Vice President who makes the GOP ticket unacceptable to the rest of the country. Republican Primary results from southern states make clear that Governor Romney could not confidently deliver the South on General Election Day in November. Exit polls raise a real question regarding whether Governor Huckabee as the Vice Presidential nominee would hurt Senator McCain’s chances in the many other areas of the country.
Finally, Senator McCain’s Vice Presidential selection needs to be someone who adds to the Electoral College calculation. The chances that Governor Romney could deliver Massachusetts are pretty slim. (Although Senator McCain abhors the comparison, Senator McCain (Arizona) selecting Governor Romney (Massachusetts) would be like Senator Bob Dole (Kansas) picking Congressman Jack Kemp (New York) in 1996.) If Senator Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, then Arkansas should be a safe bet for Republicans with or without Governor Huckabee on the ticket.
Of course, the population of successful southern conservative public officials who can deliver the base, the south, and their state is very limited. Governor Bobby Jindal, the newly elected governor of Louisiana is sometimes mentioned as a possibility. At thirty-six, he would barely meet the minimum age threshold to be President (thirty-five). With the prospect of succeeding McCain in 2012 (or perhaps earlier), he would become the youngest President in U.S. history. It would be an interesting contrast - kind of like - the oldest (Ronald Reagan was 69 when he was first inaugurated President) and youngest (Teddy Roosevelt was 42 when he assumed the Presidency) on the same ticket.
Governor Mark Sanford, the popular South Carolina Governor, is a real possibility. Governor Sonny Perdue, the reliable and very popular conservative Governor of Georgia has to make the list.
But then Senator McCain could break the mold entirely and really reach out and transform the Republican Party while connecting with the conservative and evangelical base, and have a well known and popular southern political personality. He could pick someone like -- former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts. Now, that would really shake things up.