So what does all of this mean? Political pundits quizzically posed this question when nothing they predicted (or expected) in the 2008 Presidential race actually happened.
In November 2007, Senator Hillary Clinton was inevitable. After the Iowa caucuses, she was sunk. After New Hampshire, she moved to probable.
Senator John McCain has followed a similar path. Washington, D.C. insiders dubbed him a political “dead man walking.” Now, he is consensus top tier, if not the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.
So what does all of this mean? Amidst all the uncertainty, there are some things that have become clear.
First, while still critically important, money and political machines do not dictate electoral success. It is why talking heads on cable news networks are unreliable indicators of election results; and, political consultants have lost any meaningful ability to reliably predict, much less determine election outcomes. The problem is that money, political machines, and polls are the only barometers that pundits and commentators rely on when trying to project what voters will do. So, they have been wrong - consistently wrong.
Second, neither the media nor pollsters can deliver election victories. This is not to say they did not try. Between CNN and FOX, Senator Obama got everything he could hope for in the pre-New Hampshire primary coverage. Indeed, after the pre-New Hampshire primary election buildup for an easy Senator Obama victory, some voters had to wonder why even have the election. (Undoubtedly, some of Senator Obama’s staffers have to wonder whether the projected double-digit victory allowed too many independent New Hampshire voters to comfortably defect from the Democratic Primary and vote for Senator John McCain in the Republican Primary.)
While the network executives were convinced of a Senator Obama victory, voters were not. It was actually entertaining to watch commentators on live cable television scurry about to explain Senator Obama’s success while streaming election results reflected that something completely different was happening. 2008 has confirmed the old adage that polls do not vote, people do.
Third, politics in the internet/cable news era moves fast. In Iowa, Governor Mike Huckabee skyrocketed in the blink of an eye from political obscurity to first place in the most anticipated election contest in America. In New Hampshire, Senator Barack Obama saw a projected ten point victory dissolve overnight (literally overnight) into a three point loss.
Voters tune in late; they consider the choices; they decide; and then, they move on.
In that way, some would argue that the 2008 Presidential nomination coverage truly has become a political reality show. Voters are looking for something or someone that they can identify with. There is no better illustration than Senator Hillary Clinton’s campaign during the 48 hours leading up to the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.
As the 48 hours begins, the deck is decidedly stacked against her - but she does not give up. In the course of one of the last debates (just as New Hampshire tunes in), she acknowledges that it “hurt” that folks did not find her as popular as Senator Obama, and for those watching, it was clear that it did hurt. After nonstop campaigning at a physically exhausting pace, she “teared up” (using the words of commentators) in describing how hard it had been. Senator Edwards (in what has to be one of worst political miscalculations of the election cycle), then piled on by questioning her fitness to serve as Commander in Chief if she thought the election was tough. Senator Clinton’s 48 hours culminated with a victory speech in New Hampshire noting that she had found her voice.
For many women in America, the sequence struck a resonating chord. After all, it has been their journey in life. It has not been easy. They have been hurt. They have “teared up” in the face of adversity, but they were not broken. Even as some men cited such emotion as a sign of weakness undermining their ability to lead, they persevered. Through this journey, a quiet confident resolve took root permitting them to find their voice. In New Hampshire, and throughout America that voice is Hillary Clinton in 2008.
Now, a word from our sponsor.
No one should kid themselves, President Bill Clinton is that good.
Two genuine and real life events - Senator Hillary Clinton’s human moment and the struggle of modern American women to exist and succeed were woven together artfully and effectively to unite and move many women into action in New Hampshire, and maybe in America. Republicans do not have anyone nearly that good.