Down the stretch they come - in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. So far, the Presidential race has been anything but predictable. In the final weeks of the first political playoff game, two people have changed the dynamics of the political playing field - one is a candidate, the other is not.
For the Democrats, there has been no bigger story leading up to the Iowa caucus on January 3, 2008 than Oprah Winfrey. The content of her endorsement has added little to the debate. On the other hand, the fact of her personal participation has shifted the focus from a crowded field to a single candidate - Senator Barack Obama. No one should doubt that the Oprah Winfrey endorsement show caused a sizable political earthquake in the contest for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. The “Clinton express” was shaken in its tracks. Senator John Edwards has been swallowed in the darkness that surrounds the media spotlight that Oprah Winfrey has focused on Senator Barack Obama. The rest of the field has been all but eliminated -- starved of any of the air necessary in the political world to live to fight another day.
For the Republicans, Governor Mike Huckabee’s surge in the polls has changed the Republican contest from a seemingly inevitable two person race to a five man free-for-all. While much of the media focus has been on Governor Huckabee, the winners of this sudden shift among Republican voters include not only Governor Huckabee but also Senators John McCain and Fred Thompson. Before Governor Huckabee’s elevation to front-runner status, many believed that Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Governor Mitt Romney occupied the top two slots and would face off on February 5, 2008 (assuming Mayor Giuliani could weather consecutive losses in early primary states).
With the new polls showing Governor Huckabee with a solid lead in Iowa, and conservative support consolidating around Governor Huckabee’s campaign, the GOP election contest has changed. The door is now open for Senator John McCain to make a serious bid to win New Hampshire. While Governor Romney is expected to win Michigan, South Carolina could be the final stand for either Governor Huckabee or Senator Fred Thompson. And, considering that he may not win a contest earlier, Florida will likely be an indispensable win for Mayor Giuliani. In all, the sudden changes in political sands among Republican voters signal an increased possibility that a real political contest will remain on February 5th. If so, it will be something that no one has ever seen before.
In the home stretch, there is no margin for error. The slightest stumble can cost a candidate the race. Traditional thought has been that money and organization win. This means “ground troops” in the caucus states like Iowa (and Wyoming for the Republicans on January 5, 2008), and expensive political advertising in the primary states of New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina and Florida.
In the end, however, many believe that both the Democrats and the Republicans will turn to a much more traditional issue in deciding their respective nominees. It is not healthcare, the war, or even taxes. It is “electability” who can actually win on November 4, 2008.
Of course, “electability” is a tricky thing. After all, President Jimmy Carter (in 1980), President George H. W. Bush (in 1992), and Vice President Al Gore (in 2000) all looked like the “safe pick” for their respective parties, and they all lost.
There will be many more ebbs and flows to the Presidential race, even before the January 3, 2008 Iowa caucuses. After all, the nomination process is a systematic testing of the candidates to see if they have the mettle to be the next President of the United States. While less than perfect, there is a method to the madness of American politics.