Senator Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign has been impressive. Together with former President Bill Clinton, she has built a talented, battle tested, team of election professionals. So far, there is no other political organization (candidate based or otherwise) that can match their steamroller political machine. In fundraising, organization, communication, and messaging, the Clinton campaign has set the bar for the top tier of national campaigns. So can anyone stop this political behemoth on the steady march toward the White House?
On the Republican side, the various campaign organizations remain mired in the bog of message dilution that results from too many candidates and too many forums/debates. The top tier candidates are paralyzed by risk averse consultants who are unwilling to take chances to break out for fear of falling down. The second tier candidates appear content to vie for a vice presidential slot rather than take a real shot at heading the ticket. The result has been predictable strategies that have failed to resonate with deflated Republican primary voters eager for some sign of political life in a struggling political party.
Governor Mitt Romney’s campaign has locked in on a “presumptive nominee” strategy dependent on building a crescendo of eventuality based on organization and money. This strategy contemplates early victories in Iowa and the following early primary states. The hope is that by February 5, 2008 (when over twenty states hold their primaries) the race for the Republican nomination is over. While a win in Iowa will not guarantee a nomination, successive victories in Michigan, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida would. Concentrating resources in just the first few can translate in a bandwagon effect for the balance of the race.
Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s campaign undoubtedly has zeroed in on a “national primary” strategy aimed at surviving the early primary battles in order to win the de facto national primary election on February 5th. Necessarily, this strategy assumes that two political dynamics are possible. First, it assumes that a Presidential campaign can survive early losses (i.e., something other than first place). Second, it assumes that the natural progression of the nomination process toward a two-candidate contest with other candidates dropping out with each passing primary election contest.
The political and mental toughness required for such a strategy is enormous. If still politically alive at the end of January, the Giuliani campaign will have to pivot the contest toward a single issue -- winability. If February 5th is about which Republican candidate has the best chance to win a general election against Hillary Clinton, then the Giuliani campaign will have gotten the referendum it wanted.
Senator John McCain’s campaign strategy is simple - survive. Notwithstanding insider labels of “politically dead man walking,” Senator McCain remains a factor on the national political landscape. Given the unpredictable twists and turns of national electoral politics (including the ability of candidates to self-destruct), simple survival is no small thing. For Senator McCain, there is no next time. As a result, there is no political downside to seeing it through. The ability to meaningfully survive is a different issue. There is a minimum level of resources necessary to be meaningful. His ability to raise the resources will remain his biggest challenge.
Senator Fred Thompson’s campaign must find the spark to tap into a movement that can overcome huge deficits in resources and organization. Late entrants into the Presidential political game start at an enormous disadvantage. Traditional political campaigns dependent on systematic fundraising and institutional political structures require years to build. While the internet and mass communications increase the chances of establishing the connectivity required for a movement driven candidacy, they do not change the discipline and drive required for old fashioned political machine building.
On the Democratic side, the strategy for Senator Barack Obama and Senator John Edwards is the same - and similar to the strategy employed by Mayor Giuliani -come in second at the initial primary election contests. The idea is that the risk of coalescing political opposition associated with a Clinton candidacy will simply be too much for Democratic party activists intent on retaining their newfound political power. The thought is that anxious Democratic primary voters will opt for the “other candidate,” whoever that might be. Of course, the key is to be the “other candidate” during the de facto national primary election.