What does it take to become a candidate for the Presidency of the United States? Not much. A person legally qualified to be President (someone born in the United States and over the age of 35) needs only to state intention and they are a candidate for President. In fact, a person can withdraw their candidacy just as easy. From there, it gets a little more complicated.
If a person wants to spend money as part of a campaign to become the President, then they must file the required forms with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). The candidate can give or “loan” his campaign any amount. If someone is rich, this is a great advantage. For those who are not, it is not very helpful.
If a person wants to raise money to spend on the campaign, there are very strict rules that apply. For example, the most that any one person can give to the campaign is $2,300. Importantly, there are also limits on who can give the money. For example, corporations and unions cannot give to a candidate. There are a host of other rules, restrictions, and procedures that apply. Hence, when someone gives money to a Presidential candidate, they complete a questionnaire about their identity, occupation, and address.
If a candidate collects money (after complying with all of the various FEC restrictions), then the money must be reported. These forms are complicated and lengthy. They permit everyone else to see exactly who has given what amount to which candidate. It also permits pundits and reporters to assess the strengths of the various candidates by comparing their fundraising and cash-on-hand.
In addition, Presidential campaigns need volunteers. In order to organize volunteers, campaigns need organizations. Typically, organizations rely on paid political professionals who have successfully organized and managed other campaigns. In addition to the overarching structure of a national campaign organization, fifty smaller state specific campaigns must be created and organized.
To fund all of this organization, candidates must raise money - and lots of it. Most believe that the total spent on the Presidential campaign will exceed ONE BILLION dollars. The entry fee for a meaningful campaign to have a meaningful chance to succeed is thirty million dollars. Translated into donors, this is well over 13,000 people giving $2,300.
These components are the bricks and mortar of a real Presidential campaign in 2007. Obviously, candidates with the most developed structures already in place have a significant advantage over any other candidates. Governors and United States Senators have big advantages early in the process. With four or six year terms in office, statewide campaign organizations in place, and a platform for participation in national debates, they start with the basic assets for a successful campaign.
There are several factors that can skew the possibilities. For a candidate, the factors are celebrity, and personal wealth. One of the greatest challenges faced by a candidate in a national political race in a primary is name recognition. Candidates that start with higher name recognition can make up a lot of lost ground. Candidates who can spend a lot of personal money to create name identification can do the same.
In addition, the impact of instant information from cable news and the internet are big. Notwithstanding the dramatic impact of cable news and the internet, it remains virtually impossible for a relatively unknown candidate without adequate financial resources to mount a meaningful campaign.
By far, the best example of a traditional campaign assembling a dominant campaign organization built on resources, talent, fundraising and structure is the campaign of Senator Hillary Clinton. For the Republicans, it would be Governor Mitt Romney.
Of course, the best illustration that money and structure do not always guarantee success is the campaign of Senator John McCain. The best illustration that the internet and cable news (with an additional big boost from Oprah Winfrey) can change the political landscape is the campaign of Senator Barack Obama. And, the best example of a campaign that has succeeded based on the celebrity of the candidate is the campaign of Rudy Giuliani.
Notwithstanding the celebrities, resources, and organizations already in full gear, no candidate or campaign has yet struck a chord that resonates with Americans, or more importantly, even a majority of either political party. A vacuum remains. It is that continuing vacuum that makes the nomination process for both parties so unpredictable.