What was the single most election-determinative decision that Al Gore and John Kerry made in losing the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections? Their selection of a running mate. The math tells the story. It also foreshadows some of the thinking that will undoubtedly be involved as the 2008 Presidential candidates think about their possible running mates.
First, there is the math. In order to be elected President, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes (out of a total of 538). Georgia now has fifteen electoral votes. California has the most with fifty-five. Seven states and the District of Columbia each have three. With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which divides their electoral votes, the winning candidate gets all of the electoral votes of each state.
In 2000, President George W. Bush won 271 electoral votes – just one more than the minimum required. He did not win the popular vote. The key state that eventually decided the outcome of the election was Florida, which had twenty-five electoral votes. If Florida had gone the other way, Vice President Al Gore would have won the Presidential election with 291 electoral votes. President Bush would have only received 246 electoral votes.
In 2004, President George W. Bush won 286 electoral votes. Senator John Kerry won 251. Ohio was the key state with twenty electoral votes. If Senator Kerry had won Ohio, then he would have become President with 271 electoral votes. President George W. Bush did win the popular vote with 51% of the vote.
In both 2000 and 2004, the margins of victory in the two key states (Florida and Ohio, respectively) was small. Indeed, in the context of the over 100 million votes cast, the margins were very small. This came as no surprise to anyone since both Florida and Ohio were considered key battleground states from the beginning of the election.
In this context, the choices of Vice President Gore and Senator Kerry for their running mates was notable. Vice President Gore chose Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. Connecticut’s eight electoral votes were always considered safe for the Democratic nominee. In fact, with the exception of New Hampshire, all of the Northeast was considered safe for the Democratic nominee.
Senator John Kerry chose North Carolina Senator John Edwards. This would have been a significant choice if Senator Edwards carried either his home state, which had fourteen electoral votes, or some southern states. He did neither. North Carolina went to President George W. Bush, and the south went solidly for the Republican nominee.
History might have been very different with a different running mate. If Vice President Al Gore had picked Florida Senator Bob Graham in 2000, the outcome could have been different. As a former Florida governor and popular Senator, Florida’s twenty-five electoral votes would probably have been light lifting. And if Senator Kerry had picked Senator Graham in 2004 (as he considered), he might have picked up its twenty seven electoral votes and become President.
As 2008, candidates will undoubtedly consider long and hard the Florida running mate possibilities and there are some good ones. Republican Governor Charlie Crist is popular among Florida voters and has an impressive track record in his short tenure as Florida’s chief executive. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, who was elected to the Senate in the hotly contested 2000 Presidential election, easily won reelection in 2006.
One interesting side note is the historical possibilities that could emerge next year. Should Senator Clinton and Mayor Rudy Giuliani win their respective parties’ nominations and pick Senator Nelson and Governor Crist as their running mates, it would be an all New York/Florida Presidential election. Now, how odd would that be?