More and more states are considering moving their Presidential preference primaries closer to the front of the line. Iowa and New Hampshire appear secure in their positions as the first two states to weigh in the nomination process. But after that, all bets are off. This shift, if it continues, will have a dramatic impact on how nominees are selected and who they might be.
In terms of the 'how," the steady march by states toward February 5th or soon thereafter will change the dynamics of the race. Most expect a compacted delegate selection process to favor the possibility that second tier candidates could emerge as a real contender and have a fighting chance for the nomination. ("Second tier" here means "not typically listed among the top three," as opposed to "lesser talent or ability.") The thinking is that a candidate's sudden late surge might be rewarded with lots of "earned" media which could trump political infrastructure designed to win an electoral marathon.
For those critical of this transformation of American politics, the most cited parallel is the popular television show "American Idol." In a few short weeks, contestants are steadily eliminated from the show until only two remain, and then, just one week later, there is a winner. The thought is that the candidates in the Democratic Party and Republican Party will follow a similar pattern.
Basically, the process will begin with many Presidential wannabes, some of whom are down right comical. But, over the course of time, candidates will be systematically eliminated until only two remain, and then there is a winner. Oddly enough, this is the system that has existed for decades. There is a new dimension, however. It is celebrity.
Senator Barack Obama has proven how quickly a new star can be born on the American political stage. Much more importantly, he has shown just how quickly well financed candidates with real infrastructure in place can be overcome by a fresh face who can communicate on television. But, it's about more than just television.
It is also the ability of Americans with the use of the internet to communicate themselves, and significantly, to self organize. Certainly, there were some ingenious supporters who had the initiative to create websites and internet tools to facilitate communication and organization. But, it was the vacuum that created the motivation to look beyond the existing candidates for someone new. There is no reason to believe that this sudden surge will not happen again, and then yet again.
2008 may not be the year in which a voter centric model of electoral politics in the nomination process actually prevails when it counts. After all, dollars and endorsements continue to be the prevailing measuring sticks of pre-election success by most in the old line media. (Of course, as reflected by Georgia in 2002, however, they are not always the best indicators of election day success.)
In the world of instant communication through the internet combined with celebrity driven television, there are new measuring sticks - like website hits, email addresses, and viewers. There are more.
As Senator Barack Obama has proven, it is a different political landscape out there. No one quite knows yet where it all might lead.