The last time that there was a Presidential election without an incumbent or a sitting Vice President seeking the Presidency was 1928. The Republican nominees that year were Herbert Hoover (President) from California and Charles Curtis (Vice-President) from Kansas. The Democratic nominees were Alfred E. Smith from New York and Joseph T. Thompson from Arkansas.
President Herbert Hoover won and then watched as the United States experienced its worst depression with approximately 13 million unemployed Americans. The Republicans would not again win the White House until 1952. A political earthquake happened, and it reshaped the face of politics in America.
In 1932, President Franklin D. Roosevelt from New York and Vice President John N. Garner from Texas defeated President Herbert Hoover and Vice President Curtis in an one-sided election by carrying 479 Electoral votes and fifty-seven percent of the popular vote. President Roosevelt said “I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people.” President Roosevelt was reelected three times in the realigned political landscape.
Reflective of his dominance, President Roosevelt and Vice President Garner won 523 Electoral votes and over sixty percent of the popular vote in 1936. In 1940, President Roosevelt, with a new running mate, won 449 Electoral votes and almost fifty-five percent of the popular vote. In 1944, President Roosevelt (with Harry Truman as his running mate) won 432 Electoral votes and fifty three percent of the vote.
Sometimes when things change, they really change. That is the nature of political realignments. They reflect a whole new set of issues and challenges that the passing generation never imagined and the governing never expect. Visionaries rise up, offer a new set of solutions that consider the worries of the past and contemplate the concerns of the future.
Some believe that the United States is approaching another realignment of this magnitude. Certainly, the 2006 elections confirmed a tremor that shook the country. Whether it was a lasting shift or the signal of a dramatic realignment to come remains unclear. It is clear that the political dynamics are changing.
Like 1928, there will not be an incumbent President or sitting Vice President seeking the Presidency in 2008. It could be a transitional Presidency that pensively waits for historic events to unfold.
In the 1930s, it was a depression and a war that continually advanced the realignment toward a new coalition of voters that assumed control over a party and then the government. It is important that today’s political dynamics move at a much faster pace than eighty years ago.
Information and resources are just a fingertip away as computers, the Internet, and instant communication take hold. As opposed to the steady concentration of information in a few insiders, information is increasingly available to anyone interested in finding out just about anything. Cable news shouts it out. The Internet makes it readily available.
As a result, organizations are no longer necessary to organize. People can organize themselves with the simple click of mouse, and now often do.
Of course, there is the risk of simple information overload. Too much information, too little time. Like fliers in the mailbox, or emails in the inbox, the result is the same – tune out. In that case, old alignments control, and a predictable election will follow. It could be 1928 all over again.