Randy's Views

More and more states are considering moving their Presidential preference primaries closer to the front of the line. Iowa and New Hampshire appear secure in their positions as the first two states to weigh in the nomination process. But after that, all bets are off. This shift, if it continues, will have a dramatic impact on how nominees are selected and who they might be.

In terms of the 'how," the steady march by states toward February 5th or soon thereafter will change the dynamics of the race. Most expect a compacted delegate selection process to favor the possibility that second tier candidates could emerge as a real contender and have a fighting chance for the nomination. ("Second tier" here means "not typically listed among the top three," as opposed to "lesser talent or ability.") The thinking is that a candidate's sudden late surge might be rewarded with lots of "earned" media which could trump political infrastructure designed to win an electoral marathon.

For those critical of this transformation of American politics, the most cited parallel is the popular television show "American Idol." In a few short weeks, contestants are steadily eliminated from the show until only two remain, and then, just one week later, there is a winner. The thought is that the candidates in the Democratic Party and Republican Party will follow a similar pattern.

Basically, the process will begin with many Presidential wannabes, some of whom are down right comical. But, over the course of time, candidates will be systematically eliminated until only two remain, and then there is a winner. Oddly enough, this is the system that has existed for decades. There is a new dimension, however. It is celebrity.

Senator Barack Obama has proven how quickly a new star can be born on the American political stage. Much more importantly, he has shown just how quickly well financed candidates with real infrastructure in place can be overcome by a fresh face who can communicate on television. But, it's about more than just television.

It is also the ability of Americans with the use of the internet to communicate themselves, and significantly, to self organize. Certainly, there were some ingenious supporters who had the initiative to create websites and internet tools to facilitate communication and organization. But, it was the vacuum that created the motivation to look beyond the existing candidates for someone new. There is no reason to believe that this sudden surge will not happen again, and then yet again.

2008 may not be the year in which a voter centric model of electoral politics in the nomination process actually prevails when it counts. After all, dollars and endorsements continue to be the prevailing measuring sticks of pre-election success by most in the old line media. (Of course, as reflected by Georgia in 2002, however, they are not always the best indicators of election day success.)

In the world of instant communication through the internet combined with celebrity driven television, there are new measuring sticks - like website hits, email addresses, and viewers. There are more.

As Senator Barack Obama has proven, it is a different political landscape out there. No one quite knows yet where it all might lead.

The 2007 Georgia General Assembly has steadily marched forward. Underneath the Gold Dome, there are some pretty powerful folks who have managed to avoid the embarrassing snafus that typically happen at the least opportune time. Of course, there is plenty of time left. Yet, absent the unexpected, these folks will have proven their metal without the political grandstanding that has marked Georgia politics for decades.

In the House, Majority Leader Jerry Keen has proven to be a reliable and influential political force. He is not without an agenda. A principled conservative, the GOP Leader has committed to reform taxes. He has backed up his pledge with consistency of message and approach. It may not be possible to finish the task of reforming Georgia taxes in a single legislative session. But, if real tax reform comes, it will be Jerry Keen who has helped lead the effort.

Little happens at the Capitol that Speaker Pro Tempore Mark Burkhalter, the second ranking member of the Georgia House of Representatives, has not personally touched. As the Speaker Pro Tempore, he is an ex-officio member of all standing committees. His most significant role, may however be, as a budget negotiator. As one of the conferees on all state budgets, he has a direct say in how Georgia taxpayer dollars get spent. Since all appropriations must start in the House and largely end in conference committee, this is no small thing.

Minority Chairman Calvin Smyre remains an important person in the House of Representatives. Although he is no longer the Chairman of the Democratic Party of Georgia, he does wield real influence and power. Unlike others, Representative Smyre has adopted the Johnny Isakson approach to government - get the job done. In that way, he has earned the respect of his colleagues on both sides of the aisle. Calvin Smyrem has been able to get things done that no other Minority Chairman could. In a government dominated by Republicans in both state legislative chambers and in the Office of the Governor, such achievements are impressive.

Of course, Committee Chairmen remain a focal point of power in the House chamber and deserve mention. House Appropriations Chairman Ben Harbin and Rules Committee Chairman Earl Ehrhart have been effective. The steady forward pace of the House legislative agenda including the all encompassing state budget reflects their handiwork. Of course, their real test will come in the final days before sine die.

In the Georgia Senate, Majority Leader Tommie Williams has managed the Senate GOP caucus in a year of transition. With the departure of Senator Bill Stephens, and the election of Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, Senator Williams had a whole new set of dynamics to address. His open-minded approach to government is tailor made for the bipartisan approach in the Georgia Senate. For Williams, it does not matter whose idea it is. He just wants it to be a good idea.

A clear "mover and shaker" is Senator David Shafer. He is a Senator that appears to be in every room, almost every time. Undoubtedly, his close relationship with the Lieutenant Governor has only strengthened his already strong hand in Georgia politics.

Finally, one of the most significant voices in the Senate Chamber is Senator Kasim Reed. His influence is not the product of the position he has or the party he is in. Instead, it is the passion, depth, and consistency of his message. He is a dependable force within the Democratic Party. He says what he believes and believes what he says. This makes him someone other people listen to, even when they do not agree.

The last time that there was a Presidential election without an incumbent or a sitting Vice President seeking the Presidency was 1928. The Republican nominees that year were Herbert Hoover (President) from California and Charles Curtis (Vice-President) from Kansas. The Democratic nominees were Alfred E. Smith from New York and Joseph T. Thompson from Arkansas.

President Herbert Hoover won and then watched as the United States experienced its worst depression with approximately 13 million unemployed Americans. The Republicans would not again win the White House until 1952. A political earthquake happened, and it reshaped the face of politics in America.

In 1932, President Franklin D. Roosevelt from New York and Vice President John N. Garner from Texas defeated President Herbert Hoover and Vice President Curtis in an one-sided election by carrying 479 Electoral votes and fifty-seven percent of the popular vote. President Roosevelt said “I pledge you, I pledge myself, to a new deal for the American people.” President Roosevelt was reelected three times in the realigned political landscape.

Reflective of his dominance, President Roosevelt and Vice President Garner won 523 Electoral votes and over sixty percent of the popular vote in 1936. In 1940, President Roosevelt, with a new running mate, won 449 Electoral votes and almost fifty-five percent of the popular vote. In 1944, President Roosevelt (with Harry Truman as his running mate) won 432 Electoral votes and fifty three percent of the vote.

Sometimes when things change, they really change. That is the nature of political realignments. They reflect a whole new set of issues and challenges that the passing generation never imagined and the governing never expect. Visionaries rise up, offer a new set of solutions that consider the worries of the past and contemplate the concerns of the future.

Some believe that the United States is approaching another realignment of this magnitude. Certainly, the 2006 elections confirmed a tremor that shook the country. Whether it was a lasting shift or the signal of a dramatic realignment to come remains unclear. It is clear that the political dynamics are changing.

Like 1928, there will not be an incumbent President or sitting Vice President seeking the Presidency in 2008. It could be a transitional Presidency that pensively waits for historic events to unfold.

In the 1930s, it was a depression and a war that continually advanced the realignment toward a new coalition of voters that assumed control over a party and then the government. It is important that today’s political dynamics move at a much faster pace than eighty years ago.

Information and resources are just a fingertip away as computers, the Internet, and instant communication take hold. As opposed to the steady concentration of information in a few insiders, information is increasingly available to anyone interested in finding out just about anything. Cable news shouts it out. The Internet makes it readily available.

As a result, organizations are no longer necessary to organize. People can organize themselves with the simple click of mouse, and now often do.

Of course, there is the risk of simple information overload. Too much information, too little time. Like fliers in the mailbox, or emails in the inbox, the result is the same – tune out. In that case, old alignments control, and a predictable election will follow. It could be 1928 all over again.

Democratic Presidential candidate John Edwards made the right decision. With his wife, he stepped up to the microphone and candidly discussed the recurrence of his wife's cancer. This is no small thing.

Cancer is intimidating - even for the most influential and powerful. In the world of politics, it is often easy to forget that the candidates and their families are just human. There is a perception that they do not share the same kinds of fears and emotions that other people do. When it comes to something like cancer, they are wrong. After lung cancer, breast cancer is the most fatal form of cancer among women. According to studies, the incidence of breast cancer has increased dramatically over the last three decades.

One of the things that makes it especially difficult is that it can occur without any obvious symptoms. In the case of Elizabeth Edwards, she had been especially careful given her earlier diagnosis of breast cancer in 2004. Yet, it was only after an X-Ray for a cracked rib that the recurrence of her cancer was discovered. The diagnosis was metastatic Stage 4 cancer. Her doctor reported that the cancer is treatable but not curable.

There is nothing easy about a diagnosis like Elizabeth Edwards'. Even for public officials, it is not something that is easy to talk about. Despite the smiles and the optimism, there is no doubt that this has to be one of the most difficult things that John and Elizabeth Edwards will have to face.

The Democratic Presidential candidate said: "You can go cower in the corner and hide or you can go out there and stand up for what you believe in. We have no intentions of cowering in the corner." It was a decision that Elizabeth and John Edwards made together. Elizabeth Edwards made clear her determination when she said "I expect to do next week all the things I did last week."

Approximately 200,000 women have reached down deep each year when they get the first diagnosis of breast cancer. Even with the better information and communication now available, it is one of the toughest challenges that they will ever face. The earlier the detection the better.

Experts recommend that women begin with a baseline mammogram at age 35, with a mammogram every two years starting at age 40. Annual mammograms are recommended at age 50. Breast self-examination should be done frequently. It can be one of the most important things that a woman can do for herself.

There is little doubt that the Edwards' life will be much more difficult than they imagined just a few weeks ago. Running for the President is no easy task even in the best of circumstances.

Political opponents will question their motives, and political operatives will raise questions. Political consultants will calculate the political impact and political commentators will talk about the consequences.

Yet, no one should question the Edwards' resolve or their decision. Behind their brave faces are a husband and wife confronting a recurrence of cancer. They decided that Elizabeth's cancer is not a reason to give up on their dreams or to abandon their aspirations.

There may be plenty of reasons that folks disagree with John Edwards over the course of the campaign. Openly and frankly talking about the challenge they face is not one of them.