Senator Barack Obama is the news of the day. Will he be a competitive
candidate for the Democratic nomination for the President of the United
States? His age and experience say "no." His polling numbers and
fundraising prowess say "maybe." He does have a couple of things
working for him. He is great television. He is a charismatic speaker.
And, he was against the war before being against the war was popular.
Only one thing stands in the way - well, maybe two - Bill and Hillary
Clinton. And these are no small things.
Few insiders actually expect Senator Obama to be competitive with
Senator Clinton at the end of the day. After musings about
Clinton-Obama showdown in Iowa and New Hampshire, the talk quickly turns
to speculation about the chances of a Democratic "Dream Ticket" with the
inevitable Senator Hillary Clinton for President and the ever-rising
Senator Barack Obama as Vice President. (The Georgia equivalent would
have been a Secretary of State Cathy Cox/Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor
ticket in 2006.) It will not happen. Here's why.
In selecting a Vice Presidential running mate, there are several things
that a Presidential nominee will consider. First, can the Vice
President deliver an "up for grabs" state and its electoral votes? If
Al Gore had followed this simple rule and picked a U.S. Senator from
Florida as his running mate in 2000, he would have likely easily won the
state and the Electoral College and become the President of the United
States. Absent a political earthquake (similar to that which happened
in Ohio in 2006), Illinois is unlikely to be at play in 2008. Senator
Obama's addition to the ticket is unlikely to make any real difference
in the chances that the Democratic nominee will win the state.
Of course, this is not always the case. Obviously, Dick Cheney's home
red state of Wyoming did little to change the electoral mathematics of
the 2000 election. Yet, he was a meaningful addition to the ticket. He
solidified the political base of then Republican nominee George W. Bush.
Some speculate that Senator Obama's addition to the ticket would
solidify the African-American base of the Democratic Party. Political
activists generally agree that this is not true. The fact is that
Senator Clinton (with the help of her husband, former President Bill
Clinton) is already as strong as a Democratic candidate can
realistically expect to get among African-American voters.
Without hard cold Electoral College votes to deliver, or the
strengthening of a core constituency, the question is what would Senator
Obama bring to the ticket? The answer is "star power."
No one should underestimate the power of celebrity in this political
environment. The combination of celebrity with talent is especially
noteworthy. However, by the time the Democratic nominee picks her
running mate in 2008, it will be a different time. The freshness of a
new face will have passed with the constant coverage of a Presidential
campaign. The ambiguities of unknown positions will have been
eliminated by the constant light of media investigations and exploration
on every possible issue.
Then, there is the compatibility "thing." Political competitors rarely
make good partners. Reagan did it, but there was never a question about
who the star was. In the next Clinton Administration, there will only
be room for two stars (if that) and one of them will not be the Vice
President. Star power is not a plus.
And, without the stars aligning, there will not be a Clinton/Obama
ticket next year.